The impact of climate change on the profitability of crop production in Poland

Abstract

Research background: Crop production is a crucial element of the Polish agricultural sector, impacting both food security and the economic situation of farms. Its profitability depends not only on crop prices and input costs, but also on climatic conditions, particularly temperature, rainfall levels and distribution, and the occurrence of extreme weather events. Recent climate changes, including rising average temperatures, more frequent periods of drought, high temperatures, and intense rainfall, may impact the quantity and quality of yields and, consequently, the economic impact of crop production.

Purpose: Crop production is a crucial element of the Polish agricultural sector, impacting both food security and the economic situation of farms. Its profitability depends not only on crop prices and input costs, but also on climatic conditions, particularly temperature, rainfall levels and distribution, and the occurrence of extreme weather events. Recent climate changes, including rising average temperatures, more frequent periods of drought, high temperatures, and intense rainfall, may impact the quantity and quality of yields and, consequently, the economic impact of crop production.

Methodology: The study employed a comparative analysis method and analyzed statistical data regarding climatic conditions, crop yields, and the economics of crop production in Poland, using the Świętokrzyskie as a case study. The analysis focused on a specific crop—wheat—over the period 2022–2025.

Findings: The research presented in this article indicates that prevailing weather conditions significantly influence crop yields and the economic performance of crop production in the Świętokrzyskie of Poland. An analysis of cultivation during the 2022–2025 period reveals that changes in weather conditions coincided with fluctuations in output; furthermore, their impact on profitability was amplified by shifts in agricultural product prices and production costs. Thus, climatic conditions emerge as a key factor contributing to economic risk and performance volatility in crop production.

Practical implications: The study's results can help agricultural producers adapt their production structure and organization to changing climatic conditions and reduce economic risk. They can also provide a source of information for institutions responsible for shaping agricultural policy and supporting agricultural adaptation to climate change.

Originality / value: The study’s originality lies in combining an analysis of changing climatic conditions with an assessment of their impact on crop yields, production costs, and the profitability of a selected crop in Poland, using a specific province as a case study. The study’s value stems from its comprehensive approach to the relationships between climatic factors and the economic outcomes of agricultural production. The findings can serve as a basis for better adapting crop production organization and technology to changing climatic conditions and for mitigating the economic risks faced by farms.